As per the macroeconomic report 2011 and forecasts for 2012, National Finance Supervisory Committee said that in the upcoming time, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) should lower the interest rates but not loosen the monetary policy.
The committee proposed from now till the end of this year, credit growth should be controlled at around 1.8-2% per month, the credit growth for the whole year would be at 15% and the total means of payment would increase by 11-12% (the current targets are at 20% and 16% respectively).
The committee also petitioned the credit growth in 2012 should not exceed 20% and the total means of payment would increase by 16%.
The watchdog committee said that the lending ratio on total deposits of the Vietnam?s banking system is regularly above 0.9% (second highest level in the East Asia region after only Korea). Of which, the bad debt ratio increased from 2.19% (in late 2010) to 2.91% (July 2011) and it would be higher if applying the international standards.
Therefore, the committee proposed to soon have appropriate detailed reform plans for the Vietnam?s banking system.
Regarding the inflation problem, the committee said that the country?s CPI (consumer price index) in 2011 will be likely to hover 18%. In an attempt to tame inflation more effectively, together with measures to lower the aggregate demands, it is necessary to reduce the interest rate benchmark and boost the efficient circulation and distribution of goods.
The agency also proposed the General Statistics Office (GSO) should publicize about basic inflation index (excluding two factors of food and gasoline) together with announcing the overall CPI like currently.
In addition, the watchdog agency said this year?s GDP growth will be hard to gain target of 6-6.5% and it will be likely to increase 5.5-6%.
The committee forecasted the country?s CPI will range between 9-10% and GDP growth at 6.5-6.7% in 2012.
Finally, the committee said that Vietnam should be ready to deal with the second global economic recession scenario. ? Vietbiz24
Tags: Vietnam banking industry, Vietnam credit growth, Vietnam finance, Vietnam financial
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